Hello all!
As we prepare for the end of the longest Oscar season in the show’s entire history, it’s time for me to make my final predictions ahead of this weekend’s ceremony.
After going down the video route last year, I’ve opted to go with an article this time around. However, I’m hoping to return to making my picks on-screen in the near future.
Heading towards Sunday night, Nomadland currently holds pole position in Best Picture though there is still the chance of an upset. The late Chadwick Boseman looks set to become only the third actor to win a posthumous Oscar while the Best Actress category could see only its second black winner with Viola Davis or Andra Day battling it out.
With all said and done, here goes nothing….
BEST PICTURE
THE FATHER
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MANK
MINARI
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF METAL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
WILL WIN? – NOMADLAND – A relevant film of modern cinema, the indie-drama has picked up a number of key accolades at the likes of the Golden Globes and BAFTAs.
SHOULD WIN? – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Aaron Sorkin’s brilliant factual drama was crisply made yet failed to land as many key honours throughout.
IGNORED? – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI – Despite a riveting script and some fine performances, the stage-based drama just fell short of making the final line-up.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI
Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
David Fincher, MANK
Thomas Vinterberg, ANOTHER ROUND
Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND
WILL WIN? – Chloé Zhao – The Chinese filmmaker has swept this accolade left-right-and-centre throughout awards season.
SHOULD WIN? – Chloé Zhao – The time has come for Zhao to become only the second female director to win her respective category.
IGNORED? – Florian Zeller (THE FATHER) – He deserved more credit for brilliantly adapting his own play into an acclaimed film.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
Gary Oldman, MANK
Steven Yeun, MINARI
WILL WIN? – Chadwick Boseman – The late actor was brilliant in his farewell role and deserves to be recognised posthumously like Peter Finch and Heath Ledger.
SHOULD WIN?– Anthony Hopkins – Had it not been for Boseman’s tragic death, then Sir Anthony’s masterful performance would have been enough to win him a second Best Actor Oscar.
IGNORED? – Tahar Rahim (THE MAURITANIAN) – Despite nods at the Globes and BAFTAs, the French actor just about missed out on an Oscar mention.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
WILL WIN? – Viola Davis – Despite less screentime than her fellow nominees, I expect her to become only the second African-American woman to win the Best Actress category. However, a Carey Mulligan victory would not be surprising!
SHOULD WIN? – Vanessa Kirby – A disappointing shame to see such a heartbreaking performance fail to win any key awards. Shows how competitive this category has been!
IGNORED? – Rosamund Pike (I CARE A LOT) – Her ruthless performance won her the Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) Globe yet fell short of making the Oscar shortlist.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Leslie Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL
LaKeith Stanfield, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
WILL WIN? – Daniel Kaluuya – The British actor has swept some key awards throughout this season including the Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTAs.
SHOULD WIN? – Daniel Kaluuya – A tremendous performance by a talented star who completely dominated the screen throughout Judas.
IGNORED? – Chadwick Boseman (DA 5 BLOODS) – The late actor could have earned a second posthumous nomination for a small yet effective role.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
Amanda Seyfried, MANK
Yuh-jung Youn, MINARI
WILL WIN? – Yuh-jung Youn – Her recent triumphs at SAG and BAFTA should be enough to help her become only the second Asian performer to win an Oscar.
SHOULD WIN? – Maria Bakalova – As great as Youn is, Maria’s delightful turn was a lot more risqué especially when placed in real situations.
IGNORED? – Jodie Foster (THE MAURITANIAN) – Foster is only the fourth actress to win this category at the Golden Globes yet be snubbed by the Academy.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM (Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern & Nina Pedrad)
THE FATHER (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
NOMADLAND (Chloé Zhao)
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI (Kemp Powers)
THE WHITE TIGER (Ramin Bahrani)
WILL WIN? – NOMADLAND – Probably unlikely but its frontrunner status might be enough to edge it over The Father.
SHOULD WIN? – THE FATHER – A masterful adaptation of a brilliant play that gained a boost from its BAFTA win.
IGNORED? – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
MINARI (Lee Isaac Chung)
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (Emerald Fennell)
SOUND OF METAL (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
WILL WIN? – PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – A tough call, but it would be a nice reward for an aspiring filmmaker best known to audiences for playing Camilla in The Crown.
SHOULD WIN? – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Though a more superior film, its awards buzz has sadly died throughout this season.
IGNORED? – MANK
BEST EDITING
THE FATHER
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF METAL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
WILL WIN? – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
SHOULD WIN? – THE FATHER
IGNORED? – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
NOMADLAND
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
WILL WIN? – NOMADLAND
SHOULD WIN? – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
IGNORED? – MINARI
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE FATHER
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
TENET
WILL WIN? – MANK
SHOULD WIN? – MANK
IGNORED? – MULAN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
EMMA
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
MULAN
PINOCCHIO
WILL WIN? – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
SHOULD WIN? – EMMA
IGNORED? – AMMONITE
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR
EMMA
HILLBILLY ELEGY
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
PINOCCHIO
WILL WIN? – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
SHOULD WIN? – PINOCCHIO
IGNORED? – BIRDS OF PREY
BEST SOUND
GREYHOUND
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
SOUL
SOUND OF METAL
WILL WIN? – SOUND OF METAL
SHOULD WIN? – SOUND OF METAL
IGNORED? – NOMADLAND
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
LOVE AND MONSTERS
THE MIDNIGHT SKY
MULAN
THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN
TENET
WILL WIN? – TENET
SHOULD WIN? – TENET
IGNORED? – WELCOME TO CHECHNYA
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
DA 5 BLOODS (Terence Blanchard)
MANK (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
MINARI (Emile Rossen)
NEWS OF THE WORLD (James Newton Howard)
SOUL (Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
WILL WIN? – SOUL
SHOULD WIN? – NEWS OF THE WORLD
IGNORED? – THE MIDNIGHT SKY
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF FIRE SAGA, “Husavick”
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH, “Fight For You”
THE LIFE AHEAD, “Io sì (Seen)”
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI, “Speak Now”
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, “Hear My Voice”
WILL WIN? – “Speak Now”
SHOULD WIN? – “Speak Now”
IGNORED? – “Turntables” from ALL IN: THE FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
ONWARD
OVER THE MOON
A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS
WILL WIN? – SOUL – Though not the strongest Pixar outing, it has still managed to dominate this awards season with Wolfwalkers as the alternative.
SHOULD WIN? – SOUL – A win here will mark the ninth time that a Pixar film has won this category in the past thirteen years!
IGNORED? – THE CROODS: A NEW AGE – Not as well-liked as its predecessor but it did manage a Golden Globe nod.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
ANOTHER ROUND (Denmark)
BETTER DAYS (Hong Kong)
COLLECTIVE (Romania)
THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN (Tunisia)
QUO VADIS, AIDA? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
WILL WIN? – ANOTHER ROUND – The alcohol-based Danish drama has been loved by many critics and audiences since its debut at the Toronto Film Festival last year.
SHOULD WIN? – ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg’s surprise Best Director nomination has to be a sign that the film wins here.
IGNORED? – COMRADES (Russia)
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