The On-Screen Community’s final 2026 TV BAFTA predictions

This Sunday sees the BAFTA Television Awards take place on what promises to be another fun-filled evening for British TV addicts.

After dominating last year’s Emmy Awards and the recent winter awards season, Netflix’s Adolescence is looking to conclude its remarkable run of recognition with co-creator and leading man Stephen Graham bidding to finally end his winless streak at BAFTA.

Additionally, some of the biggest programmes from 2025 are in the hunt for a prize including Amandaland, Big Boys, Blue Lights, I Fought the Law, This City is Ours, A Thousand Blows and What It Feels Like for a Girl.

Furthermore, there are a strong mix of actors and actresses in contention for BAFTA success including first-time nominees Ashley Walters, Christine Tremarco, Ellis Howard, Erin Doherty, James Nelson-Joyce, Jodie Whittaker, Lucy Punch, Owen Cooper, Paddy Considine, Rose Ayling-Ellis and Siân Brooke as well as previous winners Aimee Lou Wood, Jennifer Saunders, Lenny Rush, Sheridan Smith, and Steve Coogan.

With all said and done, here are my winner predictions for some of the main categories….


BEST DRAMA SERIES

BLUE LIGHTS
CODE OF SILENCE
THIS CITY IS OURS
A THOUSAND BLOWS

WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN? BLUE LIGHTS – With three riveting series now under its belt, the Belfast-based cop drama continues to grip the nation and has rightfully earned its place upon other acclaimed programmes of its kind including Happy Valley and Line of Duty. If there is to be a spoiler, A Thousand Blows could threaten after earning a number of nominations as well as being backed by Disney.

IGNORED?DEPT. Q – The excellent Netflix crime drama was celebrated by critics and audiences yet failed to must a single nod. Spare a thought too for Sally Wainwright’s feminist dramedy Riot Women which also got overlooked in all categories. Poor form from the BAFTA jury…


BEST LIMITED DRAMA

ADOLESCENCE
I FOUGHT THE LAW
TRESPASSES
WHAT IT FEELS LIKE FOR A GIRL

WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN?ADOLESCENCE – We know the BAFTA jury like to mix things up with their winners, but it would be quite an extraordinary twist if the powerhouse Netflix miniseries lost out here after a remarkable run of awards recognition in the past year. Crucially, it has helped to raise issues about toxic masculinity worldwide and enabled British schools to encourage dialogue about online dangers. This also feels like the best chance for the British awards guild to finally reward co-creator and leading man Stephen Graham after a number of previous losses. In the likelihood of an upset, Paris Lee’s well-grounded coming-of-age BBC Three drama What It Feels Like for a Girl would be a worthy alternative after garnering some key mentions, while Channel 4’s stirring adaptation of the romantic novel Trespasses should also not be counted out after a surprise Best Photography & Lighting: Fiction win at the Craft Awards.

IGNORED?SUSPECT: THE SHOOTING OF JEAN CHARLES DE MENENZES – The powerful Disney+ miniseries explored one of the great blunders in British police history and scored well with critics only to completely snubbed.


BEST LEADING ACTRESS

Siân Brooke, BLUE LIGHTS
Erin Doherty, A THOUSAND BLOWS
Narges Rashidi, PRISONER 951
Sheridan Smith, I FOUGHT THE LAW
Jodie Whittaker, TOXIC TOWN
Aimee Lou Wood, FILM CLUB

WILL WIN?Sheridan Smith – Though she already has a previous win under her belt for Mrs. Biggs (2011), ‘Dame’ Sheridan gave an even stronger turn as devastated mother-turned-campaigner Ann Ming in one of the most effective dramas of last year. However, there is the temptation to reward Rashidi for her compelling portrayal of another real-life figure in wrongly-imprisoned British-Iranian citizen Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.

SHOULD WIN?Siân Brooke – As resilient PC Grace Ellis, Brooke has brought a lot of warmth to her role throughout all three series of Blue Lights. That being said, she deserves the win alone for a powerful monologue scene from the fourth episode in which Grace opens up about her troubled past growing up in care.

IGNORED?Rosalie Craig (RIOT WOMEN) – The West End star was pure magic as the self-destructive rock star Kitty and proved her worth as a strong dramatic actress armed with a powerful singing voice. How BAFTA failed to recognise her (or co-star Joanna Scanlan) is beyond me. Additionally, Dame Harriet Walter was also unlucky to miss out for her brilliant portrayal of British prime minister Margaret Thatcher in the Channel 4 two-parter Brian and Maggie.


BEST LEADING ACTOR

Taron Egerton, SMOKE
Colin Firth, LOCKERBIE: A SEARCH FOR TRUTH
Stephen Graham, ADOLESCENCE
Ellis Howard, WHAT IT FEELS LIKE FOR A GIRL
James Nelson-Joyce, THIS CITY IS OURS
Matt Smith, THE DEATH OF BUNNY MUNRO

WILL WIN?Ellis Howard – On paper, you would expect Graham to succeed given the universal success he has achieved with Adolescence over the past fourteen months. However, my gut feeling is that fellow scouser Howard could prevail here with his breakthrough turn as a closeted teenager exploring their own personal identity. I also wouldn’t discount a Smith victory given the strong critical reception that his own performance received.

SHOULD WIN?Stephen Graham – Though he delivered stronger work in the This is England series and The Virtues, this feels like the right time to finally reward the Liverpudlian star and bring his winless streak at BAFTA to an end. Hopefully, common sense will prevail here or in the Limited Drama category!

IGNORED?Bobby Schofield (UNFORGIVABLE) – The son of Liverpudlian favourite Andrew Schofield produced a powerful turn as a convicted sex offender and even won the RTS Award for Best Leading Actor – Male only to get the short straw in the pool of fellow scouse contenders.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Rose Ayling-Ellis, REUNION
Erin Doherty, ADOLESCENCE
Emilia Jones, TASK
Chyna McQueen, GET MILLIE BLACK
Christine Tremarco, ADOLESCENCE
Aimee Lou Wood, THE WHITE LOTUS

WILL WIN?Erin Doherty – The former Crown starlet had quite the year in 2025 with her starring role in A Thousand Blows, and then swiftly followed that up with her electric turn as an empathetic psychologist in a role that has already earned her multiple accolades including an Emmy and Golden Globe. However, a possible vote split with co-star Tremarco could open the door for fellow workaholic Aimee Lou Wood to nab the win for poignant turn as tragic hotel guest Chelsea in the latest series of The White Lotus.

SHOULD WIN?Christine Tremarco – The seasoned Liverpudlian actress gave a heartbreaking turn as a devastated mother and deserves to win at least one major television prize after losing out on other awards to Doherty.

IGNORED?Anna Friel (UNFORGIVABLE) – Despite winning the RTS Award for Best Supporting Actor – Female, the former Brookside actress was overlooked for her terrific role as a struggling single mother in the Jimmy McGovern-written drama.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Fehinti Balogun, DOWN CEMETERY ROAD
Paddy Considine, MOBLAND
Owen Cooper, ADOLESCENCE
Rafael Mathé, THE DEATH OF BUNNY MUNRO
Joshua McGuire, THE GOLD
Ashley Walters, ADOLESCENCE

WILL WIN?Owen Cooper – The biggest lock of the night for sure. Over the past fourteen months, the Warrington newcomer has enjoyed an incredible rise to stardom with his breakthrough turn as young killer Jamie Miller and absolutely smashed the television awards circuit with key wins at the likes of the Emmys and Golden Globes.

SHOULD WIN?Joshua McGuire – Though a Cooper win is inevitable, I did have a blast with McGuire’s performance as a sarcastic lawyer in one of the more underappreciated dramas of recent years. Additionally, I also admired Considine’s emotionally-charged turn as the conflicted son of a criminal family in the diverse Paramount+ series MobLand.

IGNORED?Alexej Manvelov (DEPT. Q) – The Swedish-born star was a delight as the quiet yet obedient Syrian expat Salim Akram and deserved to be acknowledged (along with Dept. Q itself!).


BEST SCRIPTED COMEDY

AMANDALAND
BIG BOYS
HOW ARE YOU? IT’S ALAN (PARTRIDGE)
THINGS YOU SHOULD HAVE DONE

WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN? BIG BOYS – The coming-of-age Channel 4 comedy finished on an almighty high with its poignant final series, and got a key boost with a Best Writer: Comedy accolade for showrunner Jack Rooke at last month’s Craft Awards. Alternatively, the feminist comedy spin-off Amandaland fared well with audiences after the major success of its predecessor, while How Are You? brought more joy to Alan Partridge fans after a long television hiatus for the beloved Norwich presenter.

IGNORED?SUCH BRAVE GIRLS – The second series of the ruthless BBC Three sitcom was as critically-lauded as its BAFTA-winning first run of episodes yet only managed to land one nomination for its writing.


BEST FEMALE COMEDY PERFORMANCE

Philippa Dunne, AMANDALAND
Rosie Jones, PUSHERS
Diane Morgan, MANDY
Katherine Parkinson, HERE WE GO
Lucy Punch, AMANDALAND
Jennifer Saunders, AMANDALAND: CHRISTMAS SPECIAL

WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN?Lucy Punch – After a decade in the role of vain matriarch Amanda, it’s great to finally see Punch acknowledged in this category after missing out on a nod for her first run as the character in Motherland. However, a vote split with co-stars Dunne and Saunders could complicate matters with the former well-loved as the long-suffering Anne. Alternatively, comedian and disability advocate Rosie Jones could prevail despite the mixed reception of her own sitcom.

IGNORED?Lizzie Davidson (SUCH BRAVE GIRLS) – Starring opposite your older sister (and series creator) may seem like a daunting task, but Davidson stole the show once again with her hysterical performance as the self-absorbed man-eater Billie.


BEST MALE COMEDY PERFORMANCE

Steve Coogan, HOW ARE YOU? IT’S ALAN (PARTRIDGE)
Jim Howick, HERE WE GO
Jon Pointing, BIG BOYS
Mawaan Rizwan, JUICE
Lenny Rush, AM I BEING UNREASONABLE?
Oliver Savell, CHANGING ENDS

WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN?Jon Pointing – With Big Boys coming to a bittersweet end last year, it only feels right that the Epsom native’s poignant performance as the tragic Danny should be rewarded after three sublime series. Significantly, it is worth noting that three of his fellow nominees have already won here before though I wouldn’t rule out a repeat victory for either Coogan or Rizwan.

IGNORED?Adjani Salmon (DREAMING WHILST BLACK) – The Jamaican-born actor and showrunner led the way with another stellar turn in the second series of his BBC Three sitcom yet failed to make the cut.


BEST INTERNATIONAL

THE BEAR
THE DIPLOMAT
PLURIBUS
SEVERANCE
THE STUDIO
THE WHITE LOTUS

WILL WIN?SEVERANCE – With HBO Max’s The Pitt not eligible here this year, it looks as though Apple TV have the advantage with three sublime contenders. My feeling is that Severance will edge this one after picking up a couple of Craft Award nominations.

SHOULD WIN?THE STUDIO – The belly-laughing Hollywood satire scored strong reviews and ratings after debuting last year, and went on to dominate a number of major awards guilds including the Emmys, the Golden Globes and the Actor Awards.

IGNORED?THE NEWSREADER – Though there were other big US programmes to consider here, the 80s-based Australian news drama was a hidden gem to some, and came to a bittersweet end last year with its brilliant third and final series.


P&O CRUISES MEMORABLE MOMENT

ADOLESCENCE (Jamie snaps at the psychologist)
BIG BOYS (“I didn’t make it, did I?”)
BLUE LIGHTS (The police are warned of an ambush plot to silence a key witness)
THE CELEBRITY TRAITORS (Alan Carr wins The Celebrity Traitors)
LAST ONE LAUGHING (Bob Mortimer and Richard Ayoade’s speed date)
WHAT IT FEELS LIKE FOR A GIRL (Byron leaves for Brighton to start Uni, where she introduces herself as Paris)

WILL WIN?THE CELEBRITY TRAITORS – The all-star spinoff of the BBC psychological game show was a massive hit with audiences and went viral more than once on social media.

SHOULD WIN?BLUE LIGHTS – Personally, Adolescence would have stood a better chance of winning here had they selected more powerful moments like the drone shot from episode two, or Eddie’s breakdown. But the tension in that Blue Lights sequence was just too good to ignore and thoroughly deserves to win despite strong competition from the other nominees.

IGNORED?DEPT. Q (Salim kills Lyle)

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