The Cinematic Critique’s final 2014 Oscar predictions

The ‘greatest show on Earth’ returns to the forefront this Sunday as Hollywood comes together for the 86th Annual Academy Awards.

Yet again, the glitz and glamour of those in attendance will be hoping to strut their stuff on the red carpet before heading inside for the prestigious ceremony (which will be hosted for the second time by chat show host Ellen DeGeneres).

At last year’s event (controversially hosted by Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane), the political thriller Argo secured three Oscars including Best Picture (even without a Best Director nod for Ben Affleck) while the fantasy adventure Life of Pi finished with the most wins (four).

Daniel Day-Lewis landed his third Best Actor award for his sublime role as Abraham Lincoln while Hollywood beauties Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway were also amongst the acting winners on the night.

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But back to this year, it is the third successive time that there will be nine films competing for the coveted Best Picture accolade. Amongst those contenders include Steve McQueen’s brutal slavery drama 12 Years a Slave and Alfonso Cuaron’s spectacular sci-fi blockbuster Gravity.

As I wrote in last year’s article, the main point of the Oscars is to celebrate the creative and incredible work that has gone into this year with nine excellent films battling it out for the top prize.

Once again, there are more fascinating performances to savour though as expected, debate continues to rumble on about the performers and production crew who haven’t been mentioned this year.

While other award guilds have made their mark on the awards race including the Golden Globes and more recently, BAFTA, you just can’t deny the sheer brilliance and excitement of the Oscars. I will focus on the nominees as well as give my opinion on who I believe will win, who should win and who should have been nominated.

Coincidentally, there will be an additional reason to look forward to Sunday as it is also my birthday (and what better way to celebrate it)! πŸ™‚

Here we go again….

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BEST PICTURE

12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY
HER
NEBRASKA
PHILOMENA
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Overview
It feels like a case of deja-vu with this year’s Best Picture category which boasts another strong lineup that incorporates more different themes like deceit, survival, love, determination, hope and greed. But whilst I had the sincere pleasure of enjoying all nine nominees, it is disappointing that only one of them can win such a prestige accolade. Right now, the force seems to be with 12 Years which produced a remarkable if harrowing story about one man’s desperate battle to live amidst cruel conditions. But while the film deserves to win, it hasn’t quite been dominant in other categories outside Best Picture as proved by its lack of recognition at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. Should it fail to win (and how controversial would that be!) then Gravity looks likely to swoop in given its success at the box-office and its visual mastery. American Hustle remains a potential dark-horse despite being scorned by many film fanatics while Nebraska and Wolf of Wall Street have outside chances with their Best Director nominations. However the same can’t be said for the likes of Captain Phillip or Her while smaller films like DBC and British hopeful Philomena deserve their place amongst the immaculate lineup.

WILL WIN? – 12 YEARS A SLAVE – Has won every Best Picture award so far in this race and is just too important a film to fall short.

SHOULD WIN? – GRAVITY – A visually stunning masterpiece that benefited from its landmark CGI though winning over 12 Years would really result in a backlash!

IGNORED? – SAVING MR BANKS – A supercalifragilisticexpialidocious biopic that only managed one measly nomination for Original Score. It deserved more!

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BEST DIRECTOR

ALFONSO CUARON – GRAVITY
STEVE MCQUEEN – 12 YEARS A SLAVE
ALEXANDER PAYNE – NEBRASKA
DAVID O. RUSSELL – AMERICAN HUSTLE

MARTIN SCORSESE – THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Overview
At the beginning of this race, no one was expecting Alfonso Cuaron to dominate this category especially when you think about the remarkable work Steve McQueen did with 12 Years. However Cuaron took years to make Gravity and ended up creating one of the best sci-fi films of all time. David O. Russell remains a spoiler for the win but stands a better chance of landing Best Original Screenplay which would certainly silence his critics. Alexander Payne will have to just settle for another nomination while Marty Scorsese already has an Oscar to his name. But hopefully the legendary filmmaker will win another one soon!

WILL WIN? – ALFONSO CUARON – All that hard work is finally set to pay off for the Spanish director.

SHOULD WIN? – STEVE MCQUEEN – His incredible dedication to 12 Years will not be forgotten but a shock win on Sunday would be hugely popular with cinephiles!

IGNORED? – PAUL GREENGRASS – His tense direction of Captain Phillips was overlooked in the end but he was up against some solid names.

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BEST ACTOR

CHRISTIAN BALE – AMERICAN HUSTLE
BRUCE DERN – NEBRASKA
LEONARDO DI-CAPRIO – THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
CHIWETEL EJIOFOR – 12 YEARS A SLAVE
MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY – DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Overview
After staring in woeful rom-coms like How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days and Failure to Launch, Matthew McConaughey has produced a remarkable turnaround in his acting career and is suddenly on the verge of a potential Oscar win. His physically demanding portrayal of AIDs victim Ron Woodruff has already won him the Golden Globe and the SAG which should guarantee him the golden statue. But his BAFTA omission could give British actor Chiwetel Ejiofor (who won that award himself last week) a fighting chance of the win for his devastating role in 12 Years. Leonardo Di-Caprio gave one of his best performances in Wolf of Wall Street but is set to continue waiting for an Oscar triumph. An early favourite in this awards race, Bruce Dern will have to just settle for a comeback nod for his subtle turn while Christian Bale’s mention for Hustle surprised many people who felt Tom Hanks should have been recognised instead.


WILL WIN?
– MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY – Hollywood’s man of the moment is full of charm and doing sublime work right now with more additional support coming from his current role in HBO’s hit series True Detective.

SHOULD WIN? – CHIWETEL EJIOFOR – A devastating performance from the British actor who might have to settle for his BAFTA win.

IGNORED? – TOM HANKS – A great comeback year for one of Hollywood’s biggest stars yet he was shockingly overlooked for his commanding role in Captain Phillips.

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BEST ACTRESS

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AMY ADAMS – AMERICAN HUSTLE
CATE BLANCHETT – BLUE JASMINE
SANDRA BULLOCK – GRAVITY
JUDI DENCH – PHILOMENA
MERYL STREEP – AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

Overview
Unlike last year’s close battle, this category is all but wrapped up with Cate Blanchett simply sweeping her way towards a second Oscar win. Though her director Woody Allen has been attracting enough controversy in the news lately, Cate has won almost every Best Actress award going thus cementing her status as one of Hollywood’s best actresses. Amy Adams is the only nominee here who hasn’t won previously and while she caught our attention with her sexy turn in Hustle, her barren run looks set to continue. The sentimental crowd could show support towards Judi Dench but her lack of wins will prevent her from threatening the favourite. Sandra Bullock performed well in a visually driven film and will be happy to be back amongst the nominees while ‘Dame’ Meryl Streep just refuses to be ignored by the Academy in terms of nods. You’ve won three Oscars already Meryl!

WILL WIN? – CATE BLANCHETT – Been a very easy race for her despite the Allen controversy. Very classy actress too!

SHOULD WIN? – JUDI DENCH – Her turn in Philomena was simply wonderful but not enough to outmaneuver the Blanchett train. 

IGNORED? – EMMA THOMPSON – Her practically-perfect portrayal of P.L. Travers was mentioned by other awards guilds bar this one! What a bloody disgrace!

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

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BARKHAD ABDI – CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
BRADLEY COOPER – AMERICAN HUSTLE
MICHAEL FASSBENDER – 12 YEARS A SLAVE
JONAH HILL – THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
JARED LETO – DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Overview
Right now, this category is looking certain to end in Jared Leto winning for his touching portrayal of AIDs-suffering transvestite Rayon. His triumphs at the Golden Globes and SAG awards have ensured his frontrunner status but his BAFTA snub could still cost him. Incredibly, the man with the best chance of beating him now is African newcomer Barkhad Abdi whose debut role as villainous pirate Muse in Captain Phillips secured him a BAFTA ahead of the much-fancied Michael Fassbender. Fassy portrayed one of cinema’s most despicable villains of recent times but sadly will have to settle for his maiden nomination. Bradley Cooper has continued to prove his worth as a serious actor with consecutive nods but should win a gong one day. Jonah Hill did well to make the cut despite being snubbed elsewhere but like Cooper, his dramatic roles are helping him to step away from silly comedies.

WILL WIN?
– JARED LETO – The physical transformation was always going to be a key factor in him being the favourite for this award.

SHOULD WIN? – MICHAEL FASSBENDER – A monstrous performance that didn’t win him enough accolades. His anti-Oscar comments were always going to cost him in the end! 

IGNORED? – DANIEL BRUHL – Despite being nominated everywhere else, the German actor failed to secure the biggest nod of them all. Still has a promising career ahead though.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

SALLY HAWKINS – BLUE JASMINE
JENNIFER LAWRENCE – AMERICAN HUSTLE
LUPITA NYONG’O – 12 YEARS A SLAVE
JULIA ROBERTS – AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
JUNE SQUIBB – NEBRASKA

Overview
A weaker category this year, it looks likely that Jennifer Lawrence will become the first actor since Tom Hanks to win back-to-back Oscars for her scene-stealing turn in American Hustle. Hollywood and the public love her to bits which shows just how popular she has become since her Winter’s Bone days. But there is still a chance for Lupita Nyong’o to overcome the odds and win especially if the Academy are willing to reward one of the three 12 Years nominees. Veteran June Squibb could pull off an upset but her lack of recognition elsewhere will have cost her dearly. Julia Roberts is a previous winner who will just be happy to be nominated again (so long after her previous nod) while British actress Sally Hawkins finally got her first Oscar mention to make up for Happy-Go-Lucky snub in 2009.

WILL WIN? – JENNIFER LAWRENCE – At the tender age of 23, J-Law has become an unstoppable force and a potential two-time Oscar winner.

SHOULD WIN? – JUNE SQUIBB – Her witty portrayal was one of the main highlights of the indie-gem Nebraska.

IGNORED? – SARAH PAULSON – While Michael Fassbender appalled us with his portrayal of Edwin Epps, Paulson was just as chilling in the role of Mrs Epps but was sadly overlooked.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

DAVID O. RUSSELL & ERIC WARREN SINGER – AMERICAN HUSTLE
WOODY ALLEN – BLUE JASMINE
CRAIG BORTEN & MELISSA WALLACK – DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
SPIKE JONZE – HER
BOB NELSON – NEBRASKA

WILL WIN? – AMERICAN HUSTLE – Despite his dodgy reputation, David O. Russell should win here with his film being one of the frontrunners.

SHOULD WIN? – NEBRASKA – Alexander Payne films always tend to do well in these categories.

IGNORED? – SAVING MR BANKS – The mixture of humour and emotional conflict deserved more of a mention.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12-Years-A-Slave-2

JOHN RIDLEY – 12 YEARS A SLAVE
RICHARD LINKLATER – BEFORE MIDNIGHT
BILLY RAY – CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
STEVE COOGAN & JEFF POPE – PHILOMENA
TERENCE WINTER – THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

WILL WIN? – 12 YEARS A SLAVE – A powerful screenplay that could end up being the only other award this masterful film wins!

SHOULD WIN? – PHILOMENA – A delightful script from Steve ‘A-HA’ Coogan which deservedly won the BAFTA.

IGNORED? – BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOUR – This immaculate French drama was shut out completely by the Academy.

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
GRAVITY
THE GREAT GATSBY
HER

WILL WIN? – THE GREAT GATSBY

SHOULD WIN? – 12 YEARS A SLAVE

IGNORED? – SAVING MR BANKS – One of many categories that this under-appreciated film failed to be recognised for.

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE GRANDMASTER
GRAVITY
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIES
NEBRASKA
PRISONERS

WILL WIN? – GRAVITY

SHOULD WIN? – PRISONERS

IGNORED? – 12 YEARS A SLAVE – One of a couple of key snubs that could have cost this film its frontrunner status.

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BEST COSTUME DESIGN

12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
THE GRANDMASTER
THE GREAT GATSBY
THE INVISIBLE WOMAN

WILL WIN? – THE GREAT GATSBY

SHOULD WIN? – AMERICAN HUSTLE

IGNORED? – SAVING MR BANKS – See Production Design.

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BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR

DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
JACKASS PRESENTS BAD GRANDPA
THE LONE RANGER

WILL WIN? – DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

SHOULD WIN? – JACKASS PRESENTS BAD GRANDPA

IGNORED? – RUSH – The 1970s makeup and burned-scar work used on Daniel Bruhl was shockingly ignored.

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BEST EDITING

12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY

WILL WIN? – GRAVITY

SHOULD WIN? – GRAVITY

IGNORED? – RUSH – Another key snub for the ignored film though it did win this category at the BAFTAs.

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BEST SOUND EDITING

ALL IS LOST
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
LONE SURVIVOR

WILL WIN? – GRAVITY

SHOULD WIN? – GRAVITY

IGNORED? – RUSH – See Best Editing.

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BEST SOUND MIXING

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIES
LONE SURVIVOR

WILL WIN? – GRAVITY

SHOULD WIN? – GRAVITY

IGNORED? – RUSH – See Best Editing.

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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
IRON MAN 3
THE LONE RANGER
STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS

WILL WIN? – GRAVITY

SHOULD WIN? – GRAVITY

IGNORED? – PACIFIC RIM – Despite its average reviews, the CGI creations of the giant robots and monsters was eye-catching stuff.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

http://youtu.be/kJU4Hx388mI

JOHN WILLIAMS – THE BOOK THIEF
STEVEN PRICE – GRAVITY
WILLIAM BUTLER & OWEN PALLETT – HER
ALEXANDRE DESPLAT – PHILOMENA
THOMAS NEWMAN – SAVING MR BANKS

Overview
This category remains tight but Steven Price’s BAFTA win just about gives him the edge for his soulful score on Gravity. John Williams has won here many times but his Book Thief music wasn’t particularly memorable. In contrast, Thomas Newman needs to end his barren spell and it would be a real delight if he pulled off the win here. Desplat’s work on Philomena was lovely stuff but he’ll have to settle for another nod while the Her pair were bold but welcoming mentions.

WILL WIN? – GRAVITY

SHOULD WIN? – SAVING MR BANKS

IGNORED? – 12 YEARS A SLAVE – Hans Zimmer was expected to make the cut here but was unfortunately snubbed for his thunderous score.

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BEST ORIGINAL SONG

DESPICABLE ME 2 – “HAPPY”
FROZEN – “LET IT GO”
HER – “THE MOON SONG”
MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM – “ORDINARY LOVE”

Overview
Disney have an excellent track record here so Frozen should be a guaranteed winner (plus it’s a catchy tune!). However, there has been a lot of recent support for the songs from Despicable Me 2 and Her which could give them both more support. U2 did win the Golden Globe for their song in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom but will probably struggle to succeed this time around.

WILL WIN? – FROZEN – It’s a Disney song, pure and simple!

SHOULD WIN? – HER

IGNORED? – THE GREAT GATSBY – “YOUNG AND BEAUTIFUL”

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

THE CROODS
DESPICABLE ME 2
ERNEST & CELESTINE
FROZEN
THE WIND RISES

Overview
Disney just continue to dominate this category and it looks very likely that Frozen will clinch it after recent wins at the Globes and BAFTAs. The Wind Rises is the main challenger but buzz has died down lately while Despicable Me 2 and The Croods were average flicks that would have struggled to make the cut in a three-film field.

WILL WIN? – FROZEN

SHOULD WIN? – FROZEN

IGNORED? – MONSTERS UNIVERSITY – Though not as good as the beloved original, it’s surprising to see the usually-dominant Pixar be a no-show this year!

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